Iran’s War Beyond Expectations, Netanyahu’s Fate Hanging in the Balance

Strategic Dilemmas and Political Consequences

More than six weeks into the conflict with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grand ambitions have encountered stark realities. Despite the military campaign initiated in collaboration with the United States, the war has not translated into decisive political gains within Israel. Initially hailed as a chance to solidify Netanyahu’s legacy, the operation has instead exposed challenges in achieving long-term stability. While Israel’s enemies in various fronts have weakened, they remain resilient, with Iran continuing to assert its defiance. The Islamic Republic’s nuclear stockpiles, missile capabilities, and influence over the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for nearly a fifth of global oil trade—remain intact.

Air Power Alone Not Enough

Analysts suggest that Israel’s reliance on air strikes, including advanced F-15 and F-35 aircraft, has yielded tactical successes but lacks a clear, enduring strategy. “There’s a gap between the promises Netanyahu made at the start of the campaign and the outcomes we’re experiencing,” remarked Danny Citrinowicz, a senior Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. The initial optimism about a swift resolution has given way to a broader regional confrontation, with implications extending beyond the immediate conflict.

“Netanyahu tidak menang,” ujar Citrinowicz. “Perang ini adalah kegagalan strategis. Ada kesenjangan antara apa yang dia janjikan di awal kampanye dan kondisi akhir yang kita alami.”

Maintaining his popularity has become increasingly difficult as public support dwindles. A survey by Agam Labs from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in mid-April revealed only 10% of Israelis deemed the war successful, with Netanyahu’s approval rating dropping to 34% from 40% at the outset. Over half of respondents now view his leadership as inadequate or poor. Meanwhile, the Israeli military’s targeted killing strategy, which saw key Iranian figures eliminated, has yet to topple the regime. “There’s always someone to replace them,” noted Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu advisor. “It’s like waking a bear, not killing it.”

Diplomatic Tensions and Rising Costs

Western sources and Israeli officials highlighted Netanyahu’s late awareness of a ceasefire proposal mediated by Pakistan, which had nearly concluded. This revelation sparked frustration, as he felt sidelined from key decisions. Since then, Netanyahu has worked to undermine the perception of a potential compromise, emphasizing the need to continue the military effort. The ongoing conflict has also strained diplomatic relations, with rising costs and unresolved regional dynamics complicating Israel’s strategic objectives.

Netanyahu, who is 76 years old, has yet to issue an official statement regarding the current situation. However, he previously dismissed claims of failure, asserting, “There are significant achievements here. This is a historical shift. We destroyed the nuclear program, missiles, and regimes.”

As legislative elections approach in October, Netanyahu faces mounting political risks. The war, initially framed as a decisive strike against Iran, has instead become a complex web of challenges, testing his leadership and the long-term viability of Israel’s strategic goals.